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Every ‘no’ in your inbox is worth money if you know what it’s telling you.

👋 Welcome back to Content to Commas, the weekly playbook for creators, entrepreneurs, and marketers who want to turn content into consistent cash flow.

Earlier this week, I officially signed with management.

It was a big decision that took a lot of thought, ChatGPT reviewing agreements, crunching the numbers, and pre-planning my Q4 and 2026 to see what made the most sense.

It’s a decision that will lead to more money (theoretically) but it always cuts into your profit margins.

With that, I returned back to one of my oldest systems … my Notion Deal Tracker. It’s how I track all my W’s and L’s.

This week, I’m sharing how I personally stop guessing where the money’s coming from, what’s hurting your deal flow, and how to improve your win rate.

In this issue:

  • The Win/Loss Deal Flywheel (a 3-part framework)

  • Predictable Revenue Playbook 

  • My Free Deal Tracker Template (Notion download)

Let’s get to work,

Brandon Smithwrick

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Time is Money.

Q4 budgets are shifting fast.

Teams are racing to spend what’s left before 2026 plans lock.

Some will close in days. Others will ghost. A few will reappear next quarter.

If you’re not tracking what happens in the moment, when deals move, stall, or die … you’ll be left clueless.

So I’m sharing my personal Win/Loss Deal Flywheel, a simple system to see what your pipeline is trying to tell you, so every pitch teaches you how to win the next one.

The Basics.

Just so that we can move fast and I can give you zero fluff as promised, I’m going to assume you’re familiar with some of my core principles.

  1. “Position Over Pitch”: making content takes time, pitching takes time, choose wisely. I prefer to spend my time making organic content that help pitch you naturally and keeps my inbox full.

  2. If you're interested on how to partner with brands, read this.

  3. If you need help figuring out how to monetize your brand, read this.

  4. If you're a entrepreneur, and you don't wanna post content today. Good luck.

Okay … let’s get to the real stuff.

Know Your Deal Stages.

Map every deal across every stage: lead → proposal → verbal yes → contract → paid.

Then add columns that make sense for your business: PDFs, deliverables, usage, exclusivity, total payout, contact email, timelines.

Once you see it laid out, patterns appear.

If drop-offs spike after pricing, fix your value framing, not your rate — read this.

If leads pile up but few reach “proposal,” you’re either attracting the wrong prospects or replying too slow — read this.

This is about establishing a system to see your bottlenecks and gather intel on your business.

You can’t fix what you can’t see at the end of the day.

click to download

I created this Notion dashboard template for the creator elements of my business but I add podcast, speaking gigs, you name it.

If you’re not a creator, so what?! It’s a system you can easily adapt. Download this and make it your own.

Timing & Cycles.

Brand budgets move in cycles.

Every niche has hot months when money flows and dry months when approvals freeze.

Track three dates per deal: first contact, signed date, paid date.

After 90 days you’ll spot your own seasonality for your business.

Maybe March and June are your strongest booking windows. Maybe October’s slow every year, that will be your cue to focus on digital products or consulting instead.

When you know your rhythm, you stop waiting and start engineering timing in your favor.

Win Rate.

Every “yes” and “no” tells you why people buy or don’t.

Some deals are not in your control but regardless you’ll see a pattern.

  • Lost on price → clarify value.

  • Lost on timing → pitch earlier in their cycle.

  • Lost on scope → simplify the offer.

Do the same for wins. Which deals gave you the best ROI (fast pay, easy comms, repeatable format)

That’s your signal for who to prioritize next quarter or discuss a long term deal.

When you document every pattern, the confusion disappears.

TLDR;

This is your assignment for Q4.

1️⃣ Duplicate → My Notion Deal Tracker Template

2️⃣ Log every deal (lead → paid + why)

3️⃣ Review monthly: What % closed? What stalled? What paid fastest?

Within two months, you’ll know exactly how much revenue is likely, not just possible.

🏋 From One Off Deals → Predictable Revenue

Six months ago, I was chasing the next “yes,” celebrating, then starting from zero.

I’m now focused on predictable revenue, here’s the plan:

  • Forecast 60–90 days out. Know your runway so you can plan work and rest.

  • Keep pipeline balance. You want at least one deal in every stage at a given time.

  • Convert one-offs → retainers. Renewals compound faster than new outreach.

Predictability doesn’t remove uncertainty, but it gives you structure and focus on the work that moves the needle.

🍎 NYC … You’re in luck

This month, I’ll be peaking on two panels that dig into the future of creator marketing and brand partnerships:

🎙 Creators in Advertising: What Creators Need to Know to Work with Brands and Agencies — Friday, Oct 17 at VAATBP (Where Are All The Black People).

I’ll be joining leaders from LinkedIn, Born Social, and Fiverr to unpack how creators of color are driving culture, securing stronger brand partnerships, and turning creative work into long-term opportunity.

🔥 Hot Takes Live — Culture, Creators & What Comes NextTuesday, Oct 21 at The Brand Advocacy Summit .

Think panel meets creator culture game night. A fast, bold conversation on what’s real, what’s next, and what brands should actually care about in this new era of creator–brand collaboration.

If you’re in NYC and attending either event, come say hi. I’ll be sharing insights on creator strategy, brand partnerships, and building systems that turn creativity into revenue.

🎗 ICYMI…

Every week I share a quick practical plays on brand marketers, monetization tips for creators, and growth strategies. Plus tools I actually use that you might’ve missed.

Catch up in minutes:

🎙 Hosting webinars or podcasts? Riverside isn’t just for podcasters—it’s where one recording becomes content for every channel. Plan, stream, and edit today with this special offer.

🎥 I sat down with HubSpot Media to share my best marketing tips for brands growing an audience and making money online — Read it here

💰 Managing multiple income streams gets tricky fast. I use Sequence to automate my cash flow and keep my business money organized.

🏠 If you rent, this one’s for you: I’ve been a Bilt Rewards partner since 2023, and it’s still the only card that makes sense for creators and entrepreneurs. Earn points every time you pay rent, then redeem for travel, hotels, or even fitness memberships.

🧠 Struggling with content choices? My 3-part playbook eliminates decision fatigue — Read it here

📈 Inside my $30K/month LinkedIn playbook (via Creator Spotlight) — Steal the playbook

🔥 Tired of burnout? Steal my Anti-Burnout Content Plan to stay consistent — Get the plan

💸 Unsure how to monetize? Monetization 101 lays out the exact pathway — Start here

📧 Trying to hit your first 1,000 email subs? This playbook breaks it down step by step — Grab it now

Brandon Smithwrick

Thanks for reading!

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